UIS Regional Profile Teacher supply and demand in Latin America and the Caribbean This regional profile is based upon the report, Teachers and Educational Quality: Monitoring Global Needs for 2015, produced by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics. To download the report, see www.uis.unesco.org/publications/teachers2006 While other regions in the world must hire new teachers to achieve universal primary education by 2015, Latin America and the Caribbean can actually reduce the teaching force due to a steady decline in the school-age population, according to the UIS report. This offers a rare opportunity to improve education quality by investing more resources per pupil and teacher. In particular, special attention might be paid to reducing grade repetition, which reduces the chances that a pupil will complete his or her education and puts considerable strain on teachers. This is a common problem in the region. There are, however, three countries – the Bahamas, Guatemala and Paraguay – which will need to slightly expand their teacher stocks to achieve universal primary education by 2004 and 2015. It is important to note the difference between teacher stocks and flows. The projected stock refers to the total number of teachers needed in classrooms by 2015 for UPE. However, that stock is based upon flows in and out of the profession (e.g. retiring teaching versus new recruits). The data presented here are based upon a medium scenario, in which 6.5% of teachers leave the profession each year for diverse reasons (referred to as attrition). For example, Brazilian schools will need 146,000 less teachers by 2015, assuming that the relatively high rate of repetition among pupils is reduced from about 20% (in 2002) to 10%. But between now and then, a sizeable portion of the teaching force will retire. So even though the projected teaching stock will fall for 2015, Brazil will still need to hire 396,000 new teachers over the next decade. UNESCO Institute for Statistics - UIS/TR/RP/LAC 1 UIS Fact Sheet – UIS/TR/LAC March 2006 Figure 1 Primary teacher stocks, flows and additional teachers needed to reach UPE by 2015 (in thousands) Primary teacher stocks Primary teacher flows, 2004-2015 Teachers to fill Total number of Country or territory 2004 2015 Difference vacancies due teachers needed to attrition for UPE and (6.5%) attrition Argentina 283 242 -41.6 151.4 151.4 Bahamas 2 2 .1 1.3 1.4 Barbados 1 ** 1 -.2 .7 .7 Belize 2 ** 2 -.3 1.1 1.1 Bolivia 65 ** 61 -3.4 41.6 41.6 Brazil 806 ** -2 660 -146.1 396.3 396.3 Chile 50 -1 44 -6.2 28.1 28.1 Colombia 188 170 -17.9 110.6 110.6 Costa Rica 25 22 -2.8 14.1 14.1 Cuba 88 76 -12.6 46.5 46.5 Dominican Republic 60 58 -2.1 40.2 40.2 Ecuador 86 75 -11.4 46.3 46.3 Guatemala 74 85 10.7 56.2 66.9 Guyana 4 ** 3 -1.2 1.3 1.3 Honduras 38 37 -.9 26.1 26.1 Jamaica 11 -1 10 -.9 6.7 6.7 Mexico 557 -1 473 -84.7 290.2 290.2 Nicaragua 27 26 -.6 18.4 18.4 Panama 18 18 -.2 12.5 12.5 Paraguay 36 39 3.7 26.9 30.6 Peru 171 149 -21.8 95.2 95.2 Saint Lucia 1 1 -.1 .6 .6 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1 ** 1 -.1 .6 .6 Trinidad and Tobago 8 * 7 -.5 5.0 5.0 Uruguay 17 16 -.9 11.2 11.2 Notes: The projected teacher stock for 2015 is based upon the estimated primary school-age population in 2015 plus 10% or half the current rate of repetition all together divided by a pupil-teacher ratio (PTR) of 40:1 (or the current PTR if it is below the benchmark). -1 Data refer to 2003; -2 Data refer to 2002; * National estimates; ** UIS estimates. Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Figure 2 presents a regional breakdown of the flows needed to ensure that there are enough teachers in classrooms by 2015 by region. More than 1.6 million teachers will be needed between 2004 and 2015 in Latin American and the Caribbean. Figure 2 Regional flows of teachers to maintain stock and achieve UPE by 2015. 5,500 5,000 Existing posts which do not require to be filled due to declining demand for teachers 4,500 3,976 3,784 Teachers required to fill existing posts4,000 3,583 created to attain UPE 3,500 Teachers required to fill new posts created 3,000 to attain UPE2,458 Teachers required to fill existing posts 2,500 1,840 2,000 1,618 1,500 865 1,000 500 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 Arab States Central & East Asia Latin North South and Sub- Eastern and the America and America and West Asia Saharan Europe and Pacific the Western Africa Central Asia Caribbean Europe UNESCO Institute for Statistics - UIS/TR/RP/LAC 2 Number of primary teachers (in thousand UIS Fact Sheet – UIS/TR/LAC March 2006 Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics estimates. How many children will need teachers in 2015? Figure 3 presents the projected change in school-age population and the primary net enrolment rate, which is the percentage of primary school-age children currently enrolled. In general, the school-age population is declining across the region and net enrolment rates are high. For example, the size of this age group should fall by 9% over the next decade in Mexico, which is close to achieving universal primary education with a primary net enrolment rate of 98%. With about a million less children, the country might be able to achieve this goal and improve the quality of education by investing more resources per pupil and student. A number of countries will have this opportunity, including Barbados, Cuba, Guyana and Saint Lucia. There are, however, some exceptions such as Guatemala, where the school-age population is expected to grow by 19% over the next decade. Figure 3 Current enrolment and expected primary school-age population by 2015 Projected primary school-age population Country or territory Primary net enrolment rate 2005 2015 (2004) (in thousands) (in thousands) Percentage change Anguilla 88 2 … … Antigua and Barbuda ... ... … … Argentina 99 4 ,140 4 ,073 -2 Aruba 97 9 … … Bahamas 84 3 7 36 -1 Barbados 97 2 1 19 -10 Belize 95 4 0 40 1 Bermuda ... ... … … Bolivia 95 1,374 1 ,452 6 Brazil 93 1 3,613 1 4,384 6 British Virgin Islands 95 3 … … Cayman Islands 87 ... … … Chile 86 1 ,659 1 ,489 -10 Colombia 83 4 ,729 4 ,657 -2 Costa Rica 92 4 95 478 -3 Cuba 96 8 79 775 -12 Dominica 88 ... … … Dominican Republic 86 1 ,144 1,194 4 Ecuador 98 1 ,711 1 ,709 0 El Salvador 92 9 24 953 3 Grenada 84 1 7 … … Guatemala 93 2 ,060 2 ,450 19 Guyana 95 8 8 78 -12 Haiti 81 1 ,229 1 ,343 9 Honduras 91 1 ,112 1 ,178 6 Jamaica 91 3 45 294 -15 Mexico 98 1 3,459 12,284 -9 Montserrat 94 ... … … Netherlands Antilles ... 1 7 15 -13 Nicaragua 88 8 45 8 75 3 Panama 98 3 87 413 7 Paraguay 88 … 1 ,024 … Peru 97 … 3 ,559 … Saint Kitts and Nevis 94 6 … … Saint Lucia 98 2 2 21 -5 Saint Vincent and the Gren 94 1 6 1 6 -2 Suriname 92 5 5 5 1 -6 Trinidad and Tobago 92 1 29 126 -3 Turks and Caicos Islands 81 ... … … Uruguay 90 3 37 3 32 -2 Venezuela 92 … 3 ,458 … Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. UNESCO Institute for Statistics - UIS/TR/RP/LAC 3 UIS Fact Sheet – UIS/TR/LAC March 2006 Can schools accommodate more pupils? As shown in Figure 4, all of the region’s countries have less than 40 pupils per teacher, which is considered the maximum to provide quality education. Cuba has one of the world’s lowest ratios of 10:1. Figure 4 Current pupil-teacher ratios, 2004 Latin America and the Caribbean 40 30 20 10 0 Notes: -1 Data refer to 2003. -2 Data refer to 2002. Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. The demand for education is also shaped by the quality of instruction. Are qualified teachers in classrooms? Figure 5 presents the proportion of primary teachers who meet the minimum qualification (ISCED level) to enter the profession. In general, standards are quite high in the region. Slightly more than half of the countries require a tertiary degree (ISCED 5) and the proportions of teachers actually meeting this qualification are also high (95% or more in seven countries). There is greater variation in countries with lower standards. For example, less than half of the teachers in Antigua and Barbuda have an upper secondary education (ISCED 3). In Guyana, 53% do not have the required post-secondary non-tertiary degree programme, which usually involves one to two years of study after upper secondary education (ISCED 4). Figure 5 Proportion of primary teachers meeting the minimum qualifications for teaching ISCED 3 ISCED 4 ISCED 5 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 91 92 88 88 92 95 83 73 74 75 77 77 78 80 80 80 68 67 70 56 60 62 60 5347 40 20 0 UNESCO Institute for Statistics - UIS/TR/RP/LAC 4 Antigua&Barbuda Cuba St.Kitts&Nevis Barbados Dominica Argentina -2 Grenada Trinidad&Tobago St.Vinc&Grenad. Suriname -1 Nicaragua Panama Bahamas Montserrat Neth. Antilles -1 Brazil Uruguay -2 Dominican Rep. Guyana Costa Rica Anguilla Barbados St. Lucia St. Lucia Ecuador Bolivia Belize Bolivia Argentina Panama Ecuador Peru Brazil -2 Jamaica Peru -2 El Salvador Guyana Trinidad&Tobago Mexico -1 Costa Rica Paraguay -2 Chile Colombia Bahamas Cayman Islands Jamaica -1 Aruba Guatemala Bermuda Honduras Cuba Chile -1 Neth. Antilles Suriname UIS Fact Sheet – UIS/TR/LAC March 2006 Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. In most countries, staff costs account for the single largest education expenditure. How do teacher salaries compare across the region? By benchmarking primary teachers’ salaries as a percentage of national GDP per capita, it is possible to compare levels across countries by reducing differences due to labour markets and price structures. According to data presented in Figure 6, entry level salaries for primary teachers are highest in the countries needing to expand their teaching forces. Based on a study of high-performing countries in terms of UPE, the World Bank has suggested that the average primary teacher’s salary should not exceed 3.5% of national GDP per capita. But it should be remembered that in the lowest income countries, relative measures such as the share of GDP per capita, hide the fact that these salaries in absolute terms are still very small, as is the pool of secondary school graduates who may pursue competing employment options. Figure 6 Statutory teacher salaries relative to GDP per capita, 2003 3 2 1 0 Notes: The data correspond to starting salaries for teachers with minimum qualifications. 1 Public institutions only; 2 GDP for 2005; -1 Data refer to 2002. Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. UNESCO Institute for Statistics - UIS/TR/RP/LAC 5 % of GDP Ecuador 2 Uruguay 1,-1 Argentina 1,-1 Peru 1,-1 Brazil 1,-1 Paraguay 1-1 Mexico Bolivia El Salvador 2 Jamaica 1